The Role of theDemographic Transitionin the Process ofUrbanizationT im D ysonthe next observation is, that … there are far more burials than christenings. this is plain.… From this single observation it will follow that london should have decreased in its people, the contrary whereof we see by its daily increase.… it is therefore certain that london is supplied with people from out of the country, whereby not only to repair the over-plus difference of burials above-mentioned, but likewise to increase its inhabitants—John Graunt, Natural and Political Ob-servations made upon the Bills of Mortality. (1662/1964: 35)as the title suggests, this chapter examines the relationship between the de-mographic transition on the one hand, and urbanization with its attendant urban growth on the other. the chapter is written from the viewpoint that, to their cost, demographers have made rather little out of the demographic transition. after all, this is an incredibly important phenomenon that is af-fecting all of humanity. it has been described, with justification, indeed per-haps with understatement, as “one of the best-documented generalizations in the social sciences” (Kirk 1996: 361). Yet this transition is something that demographers seldom study as a whole. little research specifically tries to link the phenomenon with its many consequences. indeed, demographers seem rather uneasy about wandering too far from their familiar terrain. and one symptom of this is that the urban sector usually enters accounts of the demographic transition only as a determinant of mortality and fertility.1 if one turns to urbanization, again there are major problems with how it is usually approached by social scientists. once more, no one can doubt the great importance of the subject. For example, almost every country in the world is currently urbanizing, and many countries are experiencing unprec-edentedly rapid rates of urban growth. However, these facts are usually taken as the starting point for analysis. inasmuch as research addresses anything further back in the causal chain, it tends to give most attention to the role of (net) rural-to-urban migration in bringing about urbanization. indeed, migration probably receives undue weight in this respect. as others have observed, the causes of urbanization have received relatively little attention (see Preston 1979; woods 2003a).34P o P u l at i o n a n d d e v e l o P m e n t r e v i e w 37 (S u P P l e m e n t): 34–54 (2011)
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