Why is the rate of return so high?
Just half a year's time, the size of the balance of the treasure appears fission growth, up to now have reported size has exceeded 40 billion yuan, the balance of treasure now account for the total size of the whole market, the IMF, also has from 0 rising at about 40%.
Yu Ebao's rapid development, mainly from the second half of 2013, the high cost of capital, while the combination of the Internet platform has accelerated this process. In previous years, the overall average income of monetary fund is about 3%, but by the end of 2013 funds have led to a sharp margin of interest rates, monetary fund seven annual yield of over 5% or even 6% abound.
How to achieve such a high income, the secret lies behind the monetary fund investment strategy. Po corresponds to the balance of Celestica fund increase of liberty money market funds, its investment target is mainly interbank deposits, accounted for 80% to 90%, the rest is to invest in bonds, the interest rate, a high level of credit bonds.
In June last year, the inter-bank market liquidity tensions erupted, capital market prices soared. Since then, the bank's funds rate has been at a high level, and the Shibor rate linked to the bank deposit agreement is the main asset of the balance of treasure investment. The balance of treasure through the form of agreement to lend money to banks in the form of money, so yields have been at a high level.
Celestica increased Liberty Fund Manager in the fourth quarter of 2013, the report said, "short financial rate of return to follow the trend of the funds rate, sharply upward. Bank deposit yields are generally uplift, especially across the end of the year and the Spring Festival funding demand is very strong, the revenue has been maintained at a high level."
With the balance of treasure suction gold capacity continues to increase, since the line has been in a state of net purchase. Such a high scale also allows it to have a very high agreement to negotiate the ability to benefit from this change in the market, the funds are tight, a lot of agreement deposit yields higher than 8% or even 9%.
By the end of 2011, the Commission canceled the monetary fund investment agreement deposit 30% cap, since the Monetary Fund's main investment targets are turned to the agreement deposit. In simple terms, the balance of treasure by aggregating the individual to invest idle funds and bank deposit agreement to obtain part of the spreads. Individual demand deposit interest rate is only 0.35%, but the balance of treasure can obtain the agreement deposit interest rate of 5% to 6%, which is the balance of Baodai to investors of yield spreads.
From the fund four seasons reported data point of view, Yu Ebao's assets to invest in the proportion of deposit agreement as high as 92.21%, the average remaining maturity of the portfolio of assets accounted for 30 days or less, the proportion of the net assets of the fund's assets amounted to 63.69%. That is more than 90% of Yu Ebao's assets to invest in the agreement, and within 1 months of the agreement deposit ratio of more than 60%. This is much higher than the level of other similar monetary fund.
Data show that balance PCC remain 2013 years 5 months, from the beginning of December 26, 2013, has seven years of income remained at more than 6%. Since the establishment of the performance, according to wind information data, as of February 21, 2014, Celestica increased since the establishment of the liberty total return is 3.78%, annual return of 5.19%, average income over the same period of money market funds respectively 3.36% and 4.60%, the balance of income slightly higher than monetary fund income.
Due to the balance of treasure customer to ordinary investors is in the majority, the 70 million customers per household scale is only about 5700 yuan, the volatility of earnings is smaller. In fact, with the volatility of the capital market, the balance of treasure since the establishment of the seven has had two years of the peak period. The first occurred in the year, and then its revenue has been around 4%, only in the late three quarter rose to 5%.
But inevitably, the decline in revenue will lead to a significant decline in the attractiveness of money market funds, money market funds will also face a huge liquidity risk in the future.
With the scale of the storm surge, the balance of treasure portfolio remaining period also appear larger changes, the combination of the remaining period appears to significantly shorten. As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, the remaining period within 30 days of the combined assets accounted for as high as 63.69%, the remaining period of 60~90 days of portfolio assets accounted for 29.71%. And in the end of the three quarter of 2013, accounting for the highest proportion of the remaining period of 6 days ~90 days of assets, accounting for 57.84%, while the remaining period of 30 days of assets accounted for only 23.57%.
The personage inside course of study thinks, benefit to the interest rate market deepening, in quite a long period of time, the balance of Baodu can get higher income through investment deposit agreement. But in the future if bank loan spreads narrow, deposits, income stability decreased, the balance of the investment strategy and targets need to innovate, otherwise yield decline situation is difficult to avoid.
How do the funds flow in the closed loop?
Customers to buy the balance of treasure process is automatic account at the first time, the purchase of the balance of treasure, borrowed from the Taobao platform to pay income, so to precipitate in the Alipay.com customers in short time to buy more. But for new customers, need to open Alipay.com account.
A Alipay related to the "first financial" said, after Alipay customers purchase the balance of treasure funds directly to Celestica fund account, daily income realization is reflected in the Celestica fund account.
Different from ordinary monetary fund, the balance of treasure in the Alipay through the built-in account, and support the implementation of payment function, consumption and wealth two. At the same time, the balance of treasure also supports fast cash flow, so that users can be removed at any time, so that the liquidity can be comparable with the current savings.
Specific process point of view, the user will fund the balance of treasure, the balance of the funds to invest in the deposit agreement to obtain a higher income, at the same time, the fund through the maturity mismatch, every day the maturity of the asset for the redemption.
Normally, the money fund to redeem the funds needed to account for 1~2 working days. But at present, most fund companies through its own funds to advance the implementation of the "0" to redeem the client sends a redemption orders, fund companies use super online banking system will be its own funds quickly transferred to customer bank account, "0" to account. Wait until after the arrival of real money, for fund companies to advance funds.
Due to the rapid redemption does not enjoy the interest of fund companies to advance funds can obtain the interest. However, under this model, monetary fund size is larger, the fund company's own funds to advance more pressure. While the balance of treasure is the use of Alipay huge pools of capital in advance funds to solve the transfer problem, did not use the fund company's own funds.
In addition, the balance of treasure by providing payment function will be a large amount of money deposited in the Alipay.com account, reducing the pressure to advance. If the user in Taobao shopping, you can use the balance of treasure direct settlement, shopping payment is equivalent to the redemption of the monetary fund.
But the user shopping after payment of funds did not really turn out, still in the Alipay.com account, only in the final confirmation of receipt of funds actually transferred to the seller account. The balance of treasure through the shopping process and Alipay.com settlement time difference can not advance funds, improve capital efficiency. It is understood that, at present, the majority of users will be Yu Ebao as an online shopping wallet to use the funds in the account is used in Taobao shopping, cash ratio is not high.
How to wind control?
Balance treasure scale development to 400 billion yuan, the risk is also subject to market concerns. According to the above Alipay.com stakeholders, Yu Ebao's risk is mainly concentrated on two aspects: the investment risk, the risk of IT.
Since the balance of treasure since the line in addition to double eleven, has been in a state of net capital inflows, once the future trend of net capital inflows to break, which is undoubtedly a huge challenge to its liquidity management capabilities.
Investment risk performance, the first is the risk of fund investment targets. "We have also been in the control of the fund managers' negative deviation ', not to pursue high income." The Alipay.com said, due to the size of the balance of treasure more and more, it can carry on capital investment products all kinds of short-term bank of interbank deposits configuration, to keep the stable rate of return.
Second is the issue of liquidity risk. In June 2013 the inter-bank market liquidity tight, liquidity risk is also?Speak only a and bran sugar, sugar was a l Wu Huo Hao Wu because the thorium badger sauce by magpie Huan Hui lazy?
For liquidity problems, the balance of treasure first set of ordinary individual investors account holds a maximum of 100 million yuan, to reduce the large sums of money in and out frequently to increase the impact of the liberty fund operation.
Big data analysis, a reasonable period of investment allocation, scientific investment assessment, a reasonable guide to promote publicity and so on are Yu Ebao for the prevention and control of liquidity risk. Balance treasure has a very advanced big data analysis system support, every one hour to carry out a data update, every moment to track the case of Shen redemption. At the same time, a dedicated team through big data analysis, the daily purchase and redemption of the forecast to fund managers retained sufficient cash position, and on this basis, plus part of the safety pad".
Balance treasure also take measures to deal with the special circumstances of the reserve. "For the enhancement of the ability to raise short-term funds cannot be estimated in advance, Celestica is strengthening and the financial market department of a commercial bank and insurance institutions and information management department formed a strategic partnership, with each other to provide short-term liquidity support," the balance of treasure in the risk control is introduced, for example with CDB was established in the bond and short-term liquidity support the strategic framework agreement.
Counterparty reserves is Celestica increased Liberty Fund built one of the multilateral cooperation mechanism, to cope with the extreme case of liquidity risk.
Introduces the balance of treasure shows, and development of CDB increased to meet the liberty fund asset allocation needs the country to open bond, hand to solve the bond market fell in the period of debt issued the plight of; on the other hand, the fund has been CDB in when there is a lack of funds to provide liquidity support to the rights, because CDB capital is produced in bond proceeds and bond proceeds must set aside part of the position and the sources of funds and bank funds exist essential difference. Therefore, in the interbank money tight, CDB capital will still more relaxed, can provide better support for the fund.
In addition, in order to extreme conditions of payment risk prevention, fund companies and banks signed a loan agreement will "advance withdrawal without penalty agreed. That is to say, if the amount of money is greater than the amount of funds due to the maturity of the fund, then the fund can be paid in advance to deal with the deposit agreement. But if this rule is broken, it will have a certain impact on the Monetary Fund's liquidity and earnings.
In accordance with the provisions of the regulatory authorities, the loss caused by the loss due to early withdrawal of Monetary Fund will be compensated by the fund company. In by the end of 2011 monetary fund investment agreement deposit ceiling liberalized, regulatory authorities in order to risk prevention requirements risk reserve fund companies must cover monetary fund investment deposit agreement fails to pay the interest of 2 times, and the risk reserve will from fund management fees fall into a trap. However, with the rapid growth of the size of the balance of treasure, the risk of pressure on the reserve side is also increasing.
IT risk, capital pirates brush, payment security and other investors are more worried about the risk of events. "There is no security to pay one hundred percent of the payment, the overall risk probability is 1/100000 treasure." The Alipay.com related sources, Alipay.com to control the risk after taiwan.
For example, the background will be on the customer's payment online monitoring, scene changes, changes in payment habits to make tracking, such as abnormal security level automatic upgrade. In addition, Alipay also cooperates with the insurance company launched the payment of insurance etc..
In addition, the balance of treasure and puts forward a series of deal with the credit risk, operational risk measures, Celestica increased Liberty Fund also to extreme risk made the corresponding risk prevention and control.
Is it a vampire?
Balance treasure into the core of the dispute is that the impact on the cost of the bank liability side of the end how much.
The rise in the cost of bank debt, in fact, is not a recent occurrence. The interest rate marketization, financial disintermediation acceleration and so on, have made banks face upward pressure on the cost of debt.
Appears in the Bank of China [0.40% funding research report] international financial, Wen bin, director of research, has the greatest impact on the pricing of bank liabilities rate market interest rates, specific performance in more and more kinds of bank debt, floating pricing; the second is structured deposits will increase the cost of the bank's liabilities, for example, the bank statement of such as guaranteed financial products, because they are counted as deposits, banks use to increase revenue to attract customers to deposit a part of, is expected to scale near 2 trillion yuan; the third is the interbank deposit.
"These are the embodiment of the interest rate market, the impact on the bank there is a change in demand deposits. Commercial banks mainly rely on the profit model, is relatively stable demand deposits, banks can make mistakes with investment." Wen Bin said. However, in recent years, the deposit move, has become a big pressure on the bank in the mountains.
According to Wen bin on the bank nearly three years of decline in demand deposits, the annual bank for the transformation of financial products to improve the cost, the need to pay more than 100 billion yuan, the bank's profitability has brought great challenges.
And Yu Ebao's appearance, it is moving the bank demand deposits cheese.
"The perspective from the interest rate marketization propulsion, raising the cost of bank debt will be a gradual change and relatively slow process, but the balance of their treasure, and quickens the process of raising the cost of bank debt, may make the cost of bank debt have risen sharply." The bank [0.26% funding research report] chief economist Lian Ping said on the "First Financial Daily" reporter.
Lian Ping said that the impact of the balance of treasure of the individual bank deposit is relatively large. At present, personal demand deposits accounted for more than 10%, the bank reached a personal savings of about 10 trillion yuan, personal demand deposits of about yuan. At present, the balance of treasure products is only just beginning, if the scale continues to expand, it will have a great impact on the cost of bank debt."
In fact, the impact of the balance of the balance of the market controversy treasure bank debt costs, not worried about the impact of the scale of the moment, but the balance of treasure in the future development of the scale of concern.
However, the balance of treasure is not without limit, Ping An Securities recent report estimates, if 2014 growth in the balance of treasure to daily management assets of 40 billion to 5000 billion yuan of the scale, the deduction Celestica fund management fees and sales after the return of net cost spending $21 million to 27 million yuan. If Alibaba 2013 net profit of 2 billion 300 million dollars, accounting for about 15%~20%. Ping An Securities believes that such spending has basically reached the current Alibaba and Alipay budget target.
At the same time, can really replicate the balance of treasure products and other small and medium scale T+0 monetary fund size, Ping An Securities is expected in 2014 the overall relative size will reach ~2 trillion yuan.
What are the changes to the bank?
Thinking to the bank balance treasure, only lies in raising the cost of deposit dispute? In fact, it is more in the Internet technology application on the impact of traditional banks.
In the early stages of development, the bank agreement rate rise will be relatively fast, or the balance of treasure, wealth management is also good, there is such a customer base is the public group." Wen Bin said that the convenience of Internet technology is not able to replace, the core of the Internet banking is to make a sales channel, in a certain sense alternative to the bank. However, the bank also has a customer base, the future development of the bank's financial network, but also to achieve the convenience of the Internet can provide.
In fact, banks have already started to do so.
Product, the rapid development of Yu Ebao and the impact of a variety of treasure class financial management, but also allow banks to join the ranks of treasure class financial. For example, the Bank of China recently established the "treasure of silver demand", began on February 18 officially open foreclosure, on the first day of 7 Tiannian rate as high as 6.758%, treasure of revenue and the Internet channel products can be comparable.
Only however, the bank does not pay attention to publicity, which have multiple considerations: on the one hand, banks under the impact of the "treasure" financial, deposits diversion pressure increases, banks if they push "treasure" financial can at least be deposit in their own; on the other hand, banks have been caught difficult to promote a full range of this kind of awkward. If fullFace promotion, more demand deposits will be transferred to the deposit of treasure class financial management, the bank's deposit cost is bound to rise.
In terms of the concept, in recent years, the rise of the balance of treasure based Internet banking in recent years, the bank to accelerate the layout of the Internet business. For example, banks have set up their own business, Bank of China a full range launched brand network bank traders ", Minsheng Bank [- 0.27% funding research report] push direct bank and so on.
"From the banking sector, on the one hand, we can consider the development of Internet banking, on the other hand, to increase efforts to do is to promote the bank itself has a competitive advantage of the business." Lian Ping said, in the face of the balance of treasure, and there is no better way to fight against the bank, you need to make a change in business. For example, to do a very high degree of retail business, such as the group of hair business, private banking business, the company's business in large and medium-sized business package of financial services, etc.. "Is also a a regulation is not a fair place, behind the balance of treasure is monetary fund products, monetary fund products in some bank guaranteed invest in financial products have similarities. Now, the balance of the investment threshold is not, and bank financial products also need to have 5 million yuan investment threshold." A joint-stock bank financial sources told this reporter that part of the guaranteed bank financial products can also be considered through the Internet to achieve.
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