We like to thi nk of ourselves as rati onal creatures.
We watch our backs, weigh the odds, p ack an umbrella.
But both n euroscie nee and social scie nee suggest that we are more op timistic tha n realistic.
On average, we expect things to turn out better tha n they wind up being.
People hugely un derestimate their cha nces of gett ing divorced,los ing their job or being diag no sed with can cer;
expect their childre n to be extraord in arily gifted;
en visi on themselves achiev ing more tha n their p eers;
and overestimate their likely life span.
The belief that the future will be much better tha n the past and p rese nt is known as the op timism bias.
It abides in every race, regi on and socioec ono mic bracket.
Schoolchildre n p lay ing whe n-l-grow- up are rampant op timists,but so are grow nups:
a rece nt study found that adults over 60 are just as likely to see the glass half full as young adults.
You might expect op timism to erode un der the tide of n ews about viole nt con flicts,high unemployment, torn adoes and floods and all the threats and failures that sha pe huma n life.
Collectively we can grow p essimistic-about the directi on of our country or the ability of our leaders to imp rove educati on and reduce crime.
But P rivate op timism, about our personal future,rema ins in credibly resilie nt.
A survey con ducted last year found that while 70% thought families in gen eral were less successful tha n in their parents' day,76% of respondents were op timistic about the future of their own family.
Overly p ositive assu mp tio ns can lead to disastrous miscalculati on s-make us less likely to get health check up s,a ppiy sun scree n or open a sav ings acco un t,a nd more likely to bet the farm on a bad in vestme nt.
But the bias also p rotects and inspires us:it kee ps us mov ing forward rather tha n to the n earest high-rise ledge.
Without op timism,our an cestors might n ever have ven tured far from their tribes and we might all be cave dwellers,still huddled together and dream ing of light and heat.
To make p rogress,we n eed to be able to imag ine alter native realities- better on es-a nd we n eed to believe that we can achieve them.
Such faith helps motivate us to pu rsue our goals.
Op timists in gen eral work Ion ger hours and tend to earn more.
Econo mists at Duke Un iversity found that op timists eve n save more.
And although they are not less likely to divorce,they are more likely to remarry-a n act that is,as Samuel Joh nson wrote,the triu mph of hope over exp erie nee.
Busin esses could turn out imp ressive buzz-m on itori ng app licati ons.
So makers would be able to turn out new models quicker and at lower cost.
2.diag nose with 诊断
Whe n questi ons help doctors diag nose with cacr she was twenty.
Before you diag nose yourself with alzheimer's disease, take heart: most memory lap ses are no rmal.
3.life span 生命的源泉；寿命
In creas ing on e's life span can actually be achieved without any p rocedures.
Havi ng many types of in sects to compare and con trast makes it easier for scie ntists to p arse which genes are respon sible for life span or body size.
4.likely to 可能
Other banks are likely to face similar p ressure.
He is likely to n ame a middle east p eace en voy soon.
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