Dickson G. Watts的《投机艺术》是一本很薄的小册子，薄的你用不了一个小时就能读完。但是页数的单薄并不能掩盖其内涵的丰富。他对交易的洞见，对生活的哲思，无不用平实白描的语言娓娓到来，就像和你一起喝茶的老者，平心静气的谈着自己花费一生得到的真知灼见。这时，请你静下心来，只须侧耳倾听即可。
《投机艺术》
作者：迪克森·G·沃兹
本翻译内容仅供投资者学习用，不可用于任何商业目的，张轶不负任何法律责任。
版本：2009年01月29日。
翻译目的：本书是《股票作手回忆录》和《克罗谈期货交易策略》提到的书。
copyright 1965 traders press new york, n.y.
纽约市交易者出版社1965年版权
fraser publishing company edition, 1979
1979年弗雷泽出版公司
2nd printing, 1985 3rd printing, 1987 4th printing, 2003
1985年第2次印刷，1987年第3次印刷，2003年第4次印刷
isbn: 0-87034-056-5
国际标准书号：0-87034-056-5
printed in the u.s.a.
在美国印刷
foreward
前言
you have opened the tomb of a great man. his name, his hooks and his exchange have almost vanished. dickson g. watts, author of speculation as a fine art and thoughts on life, was a charter member and president of the new york cotton exchange.
你正在研究一个伟人。他的名字，他的财富，他的交易所现在都不存在了。迪克森·G·沃兹作为《投机艺术和生活感想》的作者，过去是纽约棉花交易所的会员和主席。
the revival of edwin lefevre's book, reminiscences of a stock operator, has renewed interest in the book because "old dickson" wrote the bible for successful speculators. reference is constantly made of speculation as a fine art, yet there is not a copy in the library of congress or the new york public library. this was one of the few books written on speculation by a successful speculator.
埃德文·拉斐尔写的《股票作手回忆录》的出版引起了人们的兴趣，因为老迪克森为成功的投机者写了圣经。他的建议写成了《投机艺术》一书，但是在国会图书馆或纽约大众图书馆里面都没有这本书。这本书是成功的投机者写的投机书，比较罕见。
dickson g. watts was president of the new york cotton exchange between 1878 and 1880. this exchange was one of the greatest arenas of speculation in america. seats sold for as much as $45,000. at this writing, the bid is $770 and the trading ring is deserted. the epitaph of the cotton exchange is that our great society of free enterprise supports the price of cotton above the world market. speculators cannot out-bid the government, so the price cannot go up. the price cannot drop because uncle sam has unlimited funds. there is a remote possibility that the cotton producers will grow cotton faster than the government can print money and the market will be free again.
1878~1880年，迪克森·G·沃兹是纽约棉花交易所的主席。这个交易所曾是美国最大的投机场所之一。当时席位卖45000美元，写作本书时，已经降到了770美元，现在这个交易所已经被放弃了。棉花交易所的存在说明了我们这个伟大的社会支持自由企业，并支持棉花在全世界市场的价格。投资者不能超越政府，所以价格不能涨。因为美国政府的资金有限，所以价格不能跌。如果棉花生产者生产棉花的速度比美国政府印钱的速度快，那么棉花市场又可能再次成为自由的市场。
pandora's box is open. you have parts of thoughts on life and speculation as a fine art in your hands.
潘多拉的盒子打开了。你有机会亲自研究生活和投机的艺术。
did "old dickson" originate the quotations and rules of speculation or did he just pass them along? at any rate, he used the knowledge to good advantage. can you?
这些训诫和投机原则是老迪克森发明的吗？是他从别人那里传下来的吗？总之，他用这些知识取得了很好的优势，你能做到吗？
j.r.l. 3/16/65
1965年3月16日，杰克·R·拉文
this reprint of a wall street classic is by permission of jack r. levien who was owner of traders press when it was functioning in new york. i first ran across jack in early 1965 when he was reprinting old wall street classics, as we do these days, and since then i have kept track of his adventures away from wall street to holland and finally back to route 1, box 18, mcdowell, virginia 24458 where he now resides, keeping his fertile mind working in numerous areas.
杰克·R·拉文是纽约交易者出版社的拥有者，他同意重印华尔街的经典书籍。我和杰克1965年初第一次见面，就像我们现在重印华尔街的经典书籍一样，他当时在重印华尔街的经典书籍。我一直在跟踪他，从华尔街跟踪到荷兰，最终跟踪到的住所：24458，弗吉尼亚，麦克道尔，18号邮箱，1号。他一直在不断地思考中。
one of these areas has been for years his love and care for miniature books. he has produced over 40 of them, with a great variety of subject matter, typography and bindings. in past lives, jack was a printing salesman and later a stockbroker. he came first from richmond, virginia to new york and began to collect books relating to the stock market.
多年来，他一直喜爱小书。他出版了40多本小书，主题很多，印刷装订方式有凸版印刷和胶粘书。在过去，杰克是卖书的，后来做了股票经纪人。他从弗吉尼亚的里士满到了纽约，然后开始收集关于股市的书。
his first miniature format was in 1967, with the results being stock market manipulation by edwin lefevre. the results he received from publication of this small book led him to study miniature books and publish more of them. his first five miniature publications were under the traders press label while he lived in brooklyn, new york. in holland he published under his own name and he is now back in virginia, his native land.
他的第一本小书在1967年出版的，最后的书是埃德文·拉斐尔写的，讲市场操纵。这本书的收益让他开始研究小书，并开始出版更多的小书。他前面5本小书都是以交易者出版社的名义出版的。他在荷兰的时候则用自己的名字出书，现在他又回到了老家弗吉尼亚。
james l. fraser
詹姆斯·I·弗雷泽
burlington, vermont
佛蒙特州，柏林顿
1979
1979年
Speculation As A Fine Art
投机艺术
What Is Speculation?
什么是投机
before entering on our inquiry, before considering the rules of our art, we will examine the subject in the abstract. is speculation right? it may be questioned, tried by the highest standards, whether any trade where an exact equivalent is not given can be right. but as society is now organized speculation seems a necessity.
在问问题之前，在思考艺术原则之前，我们要先讨论一下抽象的主题。投机是正确的吗？也许有人有疑问，也许有人用高标准尝试过，是否对于每笔交易，如果对应的情况不存在了，这笔交易还是对的吗？但是从现在的社会结构来看，投机是必要的。
is there any difference between speculation and gambling? the terms are often used interchangeably, but speculation presupposes intellectual effort; gambling, blind chance. accurately to define the two is difficult; all definitions are difficult. wit and humor, for instance, can be defined; but notwithstanding the most subtle distinction, wit and humor blend, run into each other. this is true of speculation and gambling. the former has some of the elements of chance; the latter some of the elements of reason. we define as best we can. speculation is a venture based upon calculation. gambling is a venture without calculation. the law makes this distinction; it sustains speculation and condemns gambling.
投机和赌博有什么区别吗？这2个术语经常是交叉使用的，但是投机靠的是智力，赌博靠的是运气。给它们准确地下定义是困难的，所有的定义都是困难的。有时候讲不清二者之间的细小差别，有时候又混淆了。投机和赌博就是这样。投机也靠一点分析，赌博靠一点运气。我们尽力给一个最好的定义。投机是根据计算做的冒险，赌博是没有根据计算做的冒险（张轶注：这个定义也不准，因为有些赌博也讲概率的。同意，投机是经过了深入分析，而赌博没法分析。）。法律讲出了它们的区别，法律接受投机，谴责赌博。
all business is more or less speculation. the term speculation, however, is commonly restricted to business of exceptional uncertainty. the uninitiated believe that chance is so large a part of speculation that it is subject to no rules, is governed by no laws. this is a serious error. we propose in this article to point out some of the laws in this realm.
所有的生意或多或少都是投机。然而，投机这个名词一般是严格地和不确定性联系起来的。外行人认为投机就是不依靠任何原则，不依靠任何规律。这是错的。这篇文章就要指出其中的规律。
there is no royal road to success in speculation. we do not undertake, and it would be worse than folly to undertake, to show how money can be made. those who make for themselves or others an infallible plan delude themselves and others. our effort will be to set for the great underlying principles of the “art” the application of which must depend on circumstances, the time and the man.
投机成功是没有平坦的大道。无法知道自己会赚多少钱。如果有人说投机能确定赚钱，那是在蒙蔽自己或他人了。我们将尽力指出这门艺术所要使用的原则，那就是根据环境，时机和人而进行投机。
let us first consider the qualities essential to the equipment of the speculator. we name them: self-reliance, judgment, courage, prudence, pliability.
让我们首先讨论投机者的关键素质。它们分别是：依靠自己，判断，勇气，谨慎，柔韧。
1 self-reliance. a man must think for himself, must follow his own convictions. george macdonald says: “a man cannot have another man’s ideas any more than he can another man’s soul or another man’s body.” self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.
依靠自己。一个人必须独立思考，必须依靠自己的信念。乔治·麦克唐纳德说：“一个人不能完全使用另一个人的思想，就像他不能使用另一个人的灵魂或肉体一样。”自信是成功的基础。
2 judgment. that equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties one to the other, which is called good judgment, is an essential to the speculator.
判断。平衡力，判断的能力，都叫优秀的判断，这对投机者很关键。
3 courage. that is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. in speculation there is value in mirabeau’s dictum: “be bold, still be bold; always be bold.”
勇气。就是很自信地就决定。米拉波有一句关于投机价值的格言：“勇敢，还是要勇敢，永远要勇敢。”
4 prudence. the power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. there should be a balance of these two, prudence and courage; prudence in contemplation, courage in execution. lord bacon says: “in meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution one, unless very formidable.” connected with these qualities, properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz: promptness. the mind convinced, the act should follow. in the words of macbeth; “henceforth the very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” think, act, promptly.
谨慎。在衡量风险的同时保持一定程度的警觉和戒备是非常重要的。应该要平衡谨慎和勇气。思考时保持谨慎，行动时保持勇气。培根爵士说：“在冥思的时候要看到所有的危险，在执行的时候要看到最可怕的危险。”和这些特质相对应的就是机敏。一旦思想确定了，行动就要跟上思想。马克佩斯说：“我的心一想到，我的手就做到了。”思考，行动，要快。（深入思考、及时行动！）
5 pliability the ability to change an opinion, the power of revision. “he who observes,” says emersion, “and observes again, is always formidable.”
柔韧。就是改变观点的能力，改变的力量。爱默生说：“观察之后再次观察的（三思而后行）人总是了不起的。”
the qualifications named are necessary to the makeup of a speculator, but they must be in well-balanced combination. a deficiency or an overplus of one quality will destroy the effectiveness of all. the possession of such faculties, in a proper adjustment is, of course, uncommon. in speculation, as in life, few succeed, many fail.
以上特质都是投机者必备的，但是要做好平衡。对于任何一个特质，过少地使用或过多的使用都会摧毁整体的有效性。当然了，合理地使用这些能力是很难的。投机和生活一样，少数人成功，大部分人失败。
each department of life has its language, expressive if not elegant, and in dealing with the subject we must perforce adopt the language of the street. the laws given will be found to apply to speculation of any kind. they are universal laws; but for the sake of clearness we assume the case of speculation as conducted in one of our exchanges, where they can be best demonstrated.
生活中的每一方面，如果不是优美的语言，那么就是昂贵的语言，我们必须适应这些语言。关于投机的规则，它们是宇宙规则，这些规则在交易所得到了最好的展示。
laws absolute.
绝对的规则：
1 never overtrade. to take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. with such an interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.
永远不过度交易。获取比利息多的收益都有可能招来灾难。正因为收益大，所以市场的任何波动都会让交易者紧张，他的判断就不再有价值了。
2 never “double up”; that is, never completely and at once reverse a position. being “long,” for instance, do not “sell out” and go as much “short.” this may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous, for should the market begin again to advance, the mind reverts to its original opinion and the speculator “covers up” and “goes long” again. should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. the change in the original position should have been made moderately, cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind.
永远不反转。也就是说，不要立刻完全地反转仓位。比如，在做多的时候不要平仓，然后又做空同样大小的仓位。这个方法有时候会成功，但是很危险。一旦市场又上涨了，投机者又要回补仓位并再次做多。如果这次交易又是错的，它就完全摧毁了一个人的斗志。所以在开仓的时候要保持适当，谨慎，这样判断就是清晰的，思想就是平衡的。
3 “run quickly,” or not at all; that is to say, act promptly at the first approach of danger, but failing to do this until others see the danger, hold on or close out part of the “interest.”
快跑，或者死守。也就是说，当危险第一次出现时，赶快行动；如果没来得及这么做，那么就死守或平掉部分仓位。
4 another rule is, when doubtful, reduce the amount of the interest; for either the mind is not satisfied with the position taken, or the interest is too large for safety. one man told another that he could not sleep on account of his position in the market; his friend judiciously and laconically replied: “sell down to a sleeping point.”
还有一个规则是，如果有疑问，减少仓位。无论是对仓位不满，还是持有的仓位太大了，不安全，都要减少仓位。有一个人告诉他的朋友，他的仓位让他睡不着，他的朋友深思熟虑并简洁地说：“减仓到你睡得好的地步。”
rules conditional.
有条件的原则
these rules are subject to modification according to the circumstances, individuality and temperament of the operator.
根据操作者和环境的不同，这些原则会有些变化。
1. it is better to “average up” than to “average down.” this opinion is contrary to the one commonly held and acted upon; it being the practice to buy, and on a decline to buy more. this reduces the average. probably four times out of five this method will result in striking a reaction in the market that will prevent loss, but the fifth time, meeting with a permanently declining market, the operator loses his head and closes out, making a heavy loss - a loss so great as to bring complete demoralization, often ruin.
赚钱时加仓比亏钱时加仓好。也就是说，如果买入后市场下跌，再继续多买，这样平均成本是降低了。如果这么做，5次有4次市场会上涨，减少了亏损，但是第5次时，市场可能继续下跌，操作者头昏了，只好平仓，导致重大亏损——亏损太大，导致操作者失去斗志，经常会破产。
but buying at first moderately, and, as the market advances, adding slowly and cautiously to the “line” - this is a way of speculating that requires great care and watchfulness, for the market will often (probably four times out of five) react to the point of “average.” here lies the danger. failure to close out at the point of average destroys the safety of the whole operation. occasionally a permanently advancing market is met with and a big profit secured.
如果一开始适当地买入，当市场上涨时，慢慢地谨慎地加仓——这种投机方式需要非常认真，非常谨慎，因为市场常常（一般5次有4次）会回调到平均成本处，这是有危险的。如果在平均成本处没有平仓，可能会导致整个操作处于风险之中。有时候市场会大涨，这样就赚了很多利润。
in such an operation the original risk is small, the danger at no time great, and when successful, the profit is large. the method should only be employed when an important advance or decline is expected, and with a moderate capital can be undertaken with comparative safety.
用这种方法，最初的风险很小，风险总是小，一旦成功了，利润很大。只有认为会有重大的上涨或下跌时才能用这个方法，投入的资金相对要安全。
2. to “buy down” requires a long purse and a strong nerve, and ruin often overtakes those who have both nerve and money. the stronger the nerve the more probability of staying too long. there is, however, a class of successful operators who “buy down” and hold on. they deal in relatively small amounts. entering the market prudently with the determination of holding on for a long period, they are not disturbed by its fluctuations. they are men of good judgment, who buy in times of depression to hold for a general revival of business - an investing rather than a speculating class.
在下跌时买入需要你钱多，意志强，有些人钱多，意志也强，但常常还是被毁灭了。意志越强，越有可能长期持有。有些成功的交易者会在下跌时买入并持有。他们用小账户这么做。他们在进场时就决定了长期持有，所以他们不受波动的影响。他们的判断好，在萧条的时候持有，以期待生意的复苏——他们是投资，不是投机。
3. in all ordinary circumstances our advice would be to buy at once an amount that is within the proper limits of capital, etc., “selling out” at a loss or profit, according to judgment. the rule is to stop losses and let profits run. if small profits are taken, then small losses must be taken. not to have the courage to accept a loss, and to be too eager to take a profit, is fatal. it is the ruin of many.
在一般情况下，我们的建议是用合理的资金买入，然后根据判断止损或兑现利润。原则就是截断亏损，让利润奔跑。如果兑现了小利润，就一定要兑现小亏损。没有勇气接受亏损，太急于兑现利润，这是致命的。这样会毁了很多东西。
—— 即要确保亏损和盈利的相称性。
4. public opinion is not to be ignored. a strong speculative current is for the time being overwhelming, and should be closely watched. the rule is, to act cautiously with public opinion; against it, boldly. to go with the market, even when the basis is a good one, is dangerous. it may at any time turn and rend you. every speculator knows the danger of too much “company.” it is equally necessary to exercise common caution in going against the market. this caution should be continued to the point of wavering - of loss of confidence - when the market should be boldly encountered to the full extent of strength, nerve and capital. the market has a pulse on which the hand of the operator should be placed as that of the physician on the wrist of the patient. this pulse-beat must be the guide when and how to act.
不要忽视大众观点。有些投机事件很厉害，需要密切关注。原则是，对大众观点保持谨慎，勇敢地反对。即使基本面很好，顺应市场也是危险的。市场随时会反转并撕碎你。每个投机者都知道有太多参考的风险。在逆势而为的时候谨慎是必要的。这种谨慎要坚持到摇摆的时候——失去信心的时候——此时市场达到了力量的极限——精神和资金也达到了极限。和诊脉一样，市场也有自己的脉搏。需要利用好这个脉搏。
5. quiet, weak markets are good markets to sell. they ordinarily develop into declining markets. but when a market has gone through the stages of quiet and weak to active and declining, then on to semi-panic or panic, it should be bought freely. when vice versa, a quiet and firm market develops into activity and strength, then into excitement, it should be sold with great confidence.
平静而疲软的市场最适合卖出，它们通常会下跌。当市场从安静软弱的状态到了活跃下跌状态，然后就会进入半疯狂和疯狂的状态，此时可以自由地买入。反之也是如此，平静而坚固的市场会进入活跃有力的状态，然后就会进入亢奋状态，此时应该满怀信心地卖出。
[shannon]指出了一轮趋势的发展历程：横盘蓄势 > 慢速推进 > 快速推进
这条的核心就是——恐慌极点后买入，亢奋极点后卖出。
6. in forming an opinion of the market, the element of chance ought not be omitted. there is a doctrine of chances - napoleon in his campaigns allowed a margin for chance - for the accidents that come in to destroy or modify the best calculation. calculation must measure the incalculable. in the “reproof of chance lies the true proof of men.”
如果要形成市场观点，就不能忽略概率的因素。有一个关于概率的教训——拿破仑的战争就和概率有关——意外事件摧毁并修改了最好的计算。计算的时候必须考虑到无法计算的东西。对概率再次演算的人是真正的人。
it is better to act on general than special information (it is not so misleading), viz., the state of the country, the condition of the crops, manufacturers, etc. statistics are valuable, hut they must be kept subordinate to a comprehensive view of the whole situation. those who confine themselves too closely to statistics are poor guides. “there is nothing,” said canning, “so fallacious as facts, except figures.”
最好是根据普通的信息行动，而不是根据特殊的信息行动（误导少些），信息是指国家状况，农作物状况，制造业状况等等。统计学是有价值的，这样他们可以对状况有个整体看法。死盯着统计数字就不好了。康宁说：“除了数字，没有什么东西像事实如此不可靠。”
“when in doubt, do nothing. Don’t enter the market on half convictions; wait till the convictions are fully matured.”
“如果有疑问，什么都不要做。不要在将信将疑时进入市场，等信心足了再进场。”
we have written to little purpose unless we have left the impression that the fundamental principle that lies at the base of all speculation is this: act so as to keep the mind clear, its judgment trustworthy. a reserve force should therefore be maintained and kept for supreme movements, when the full strength of the whole man should be put on the stroke delivered.
（张轶注：这一段不会翻译）
it may be thought that the carrying out of these rules is difficult. as we said in the outset, the gifted man only can apply them. to the artist alone are the rules of his art valuable.
也许使用这些原则是困难的。正如之前所说，有天赋的人可以使用好这些原则。对艺术家来说，艺术的原则就是有价值的。
Life生活
compensations do not always compensate.
赔偿并不能总是带来赔偿的效果。
a common deception, - self-deception.
常见的欺骗是自欺欺人。
hold in time, or take the jump.
要么坚持，要么跳开。
a danger known is half overcome. a fault recognized is half conquered.
感知的危险就已经克服了一半。已知的错误就已经改变了一半。
a great insult, - tell a man he can’t take a joke.
最大的侮辱——说一个人开不起玩笑。
fools try to prove that they are right. wise men try to find when they are wrong.
傻瓜总是尽力去证明他们是对的。聪明的人总是去发现自己的错误。
that writer is the greatest who says the least and suggests the most.
伟大的作家说得少，给出的建议多。
follow the vague and intangible, and it will become definite and tangible.
跟随模糊和无形的东西，它们会变成确定和有形的东西。
a man’s good qualities are often, at bottom, only pride.
一个人的优秀特质最终表现在自尊。
two standards, - one for yourself and one for your neighbor. the first should be fixed, the second flexible.
有2个标准——一个是给自己的，一个是给别人的。给自己的标准需要固定，给别人的标准需要灵活。
that man is greatest who quickens most the lives of other men.
在生活中比其他人行动快的人是最伟大的人。
all see; few observe, fewer still compare.
所有的人都能看见，少数人会去观察，更少的人会去比较。
the finished fabric of science is the raw material of philosophy.
科学的织物就是哲学的原材料。
destruction must often precede construction, but most men stop at the former.
毁灭常常比建设快，但大部分人被毁灭后就停止了脚步。
common sense is sense men have in common.
常识就是普遍的看法。
defer to a man and he will listen to you.
听从一个人，这个人也会听你的。
the dangerous classes, - enthusiasts and fools.
危险的人——狂热者和傻瓜。
a true estimate of one’s self is not vanity.
真正地评估一个人不是虚荣。
suffering of the body is pain, of the mind anguish, of the spirit agony.
身体的受罪是痛苦的，思想的受罪是苦恼，精神的受罪是剧痛。
man can improve on nature. perhaps that is his business here.
人性可以自我提高。也许这就是他的生意。
the distant is the great, the near the little. but the little-near controls man rather than the distant-great.
越远越好，越近越不好。但是越是近的东西越容易控制住一个人。
catch thoughts “on the fly,” for there is no rebound.
抓住翻飞的思想，因为它不会反弹。
to conquer fate, advance to meet it.
征服命运，勇敢面对命运。
the first blow is half the battle.
第一个骂人的人等于开战了。
man’s enemies are legion. oftentimes he himself is his only friend.
一个人会有很多敌人，但很多时候他自己才是自己唯一的朋友。
surplus is as bad as deficiency, deficiency as surplus.
过剩就是不足，不足就是过剩。
sentimentality is an ugly caricature of beautiful sentiment.
多愁善感是对美好情感的讽刺。
nerve is nerves controlled.
紧张就是情绪受控了。
many lean, few lift.
很多人在学习，但少数人获得提高。
imagination controlled is a great builder; imagination uncontrolled, a great destroyer.
受控的想象是很好的建设者，不受控的想象是破坏者。
people forget in the rush, remember in the hush.
人们在匆忙中忘记，在安静时记起。
look before you leap, but not when you leap.
在跳之前要观察，不要在跳的时候才观察。
the greatest tolerance is to tolerate the intolerant.
最大的忍受就是忍受不能忍受的东西。
awe is fear petrified.
敬畏就是吓呆了。
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