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发布时间：2023-10-11 15:10:28 来源：文档文库

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IMF:BirdFlupandemiccouldtemporarilyhurtglobaleconomyListentothisstoryInanewreport,theInternationalMonetaryFundsaystheglobaleconomicimpactofabirdflupandemicwouldvarydependingonitsseverity.IMFfinancialsystemsexpertDavidHoelschersaysthereisnowaytoforecastthis."Thereisahighdegreeofuncertaintyaboutthevirus.Wedon'tknowifitwillmutatetoaformthatcanbetransmittedhumantohuman,andwedon'tknowhowdeadlythisvirusmightbeifitweretomutate,andwereallycan'tspecifywithanycertaintywhattheeconomicandfinancialimpactmightbe."TheInternationalMonetaryFunddoessaythatifaflupandemicweresevere,thebiggestimpactwouldbeduetoabsenteeismfromtheworkplace.Thiswoulddisruptsectorssuchastrade,transportation,utilities,andthebankingandhealthsystems.Absenteeismwouldalsocauseconsumerdemandtoplummet,reducingbusinessinvestmentandcashflowsbetweencountries.Inaddition,tocontrolthevirus,countriesmightimposerestrictionsonexports.Thiswouldcauseadropincommodityprices,althoughthismightbeoffsetbypotentialsupplydisruptionsofkeycommoditieslikeoil.TheIMFlinkstheamountofeconomicdislocationtotheseverityofaflupandemic.Itsaysrapidglobaltransportationandmasscommunicationmightincreasesomerisks,whilebetterpublichealthsystemsanddrugsmightactintheoppositedirection.Butwhateverthelevelofeconomicdislocation,theagencysaystheimpactwouldbetemporary.IMFresearcherSandyMackenziesuggeststhatinaneconomicallystablecountry,outputmightdeclineforonlyonequarteroftheyear,withactivityresumingquicklythenext."Becausethevastmajorityofthepeoplerecover,peoplewouldbebackonthejobsoonandsupplywouldrebound.Similarly,consumerdemandwouldreboundaspeoplepurchasethingsthattheyhadpostponed,likeconsumerdurables."InternationalMonetaryFundexpertssaythebestbusinessandfinancialinstitutioncontingencyplanninghasoccurredinHongKong,Singapore,andCanada-placeshithardbysharptourismdropsin2003becauseoftheoutbreakofSARS,theSevereAcuteRespiratorySyndrome.Itnotesthatfinancialinstitutions,centralbanks,andregulatorshavesteppeduptheirriskplanninginrecentyearsinmanyadvancedeconomieswithactivitiessuchasidentifyingback-upteamsatalternatesites.ButtheIMFsaysbusinessplanningforabirdflupandemicvariesgreatlyaroundtheworld,andcross-bordercooperationisatanearlystage.TheIMF'sSandyMackenziesaysthefundstaffiscollectingandspreadinginformationabouttheelementsofgoodbusinessplanningamongitsmembercountries."WeviewtheFund'sprogram,really,asakindofinsurance.Weseethisbusinesscontinuityplanningasaformofcomparativelycheapinsurance."

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