对外直接投资

China's Foreign Direct Investment: current situation, trend and forecast

 2013年中国对外投资的东道国中除去几个主要的离岸中心外，集中于美国和澳大利亚。中国对外投资的来源地省份为东部沿海省份以及云南省。在对外直接投资中，国有企业是投资主体，按照项目数量，民营企业占绝对主导地位，但按照投资规模划分，央企占主导地位。

In 2013 Chinese foreign investment in host countries except for several major offshore centers, focus on American and australia. The source of China's foreign investment in the provinces of the eastern coastal provinces and Yunnan province. In foreign direct investment, the state-owned enterprises are the main body of investment, according to the number of projects, private enterprises in absolute dominance, but in accordance with the scale of investment, the central enterprises in the dominant position.

中国对外直接投资概况

·我们即将成为对外直接投资净输出国。依据商务部数据，2013年按照流量计算我国已经位列全球前十大对外投资经济体中的第三位。2013年中国对外投资的流量首次超过1000亿美元。结合官方数据与企业层面收集的数据来看，2013年中国对外投资行业比较集中的是租赁和商务服务业，采矿业，金融业以及批发和零售业，占到全部投资额的三分之二。2013年与2012年相比，增速比较大的是房地产、文化娱乐业和采矿业。依据企业层面的投资额数据来看，集中投资的行业为采矿业、制造业以及电力行业。从所有制角度看对外投资，国有企业中电力行业占有绝对地位（96%，按投资额），电信和计算机行业达到了90.6%，交通运输行业达到85%左右。民营企业占主导的行业是商业和批发零售、农业以及租赁和商务服务业。

General situation of China's foreign direct investment- we are about to become a net exporter of foreign direct investment.According to the Ministry of commerce data, in 2013, according to the traffic calculation of our country has been ranked third in the world's top ten foreign investment economy. China's foreign investment in 2013 for the first time exceeded 100000000000 u.. According to the official data and enterprise levels to collect data, the 2013 China's foreign investment industry is relatively concentrated is leasing and business service industry, mining industry, financial industry and the wholesale and retail industry, accounting for two third of the total investment amount. 2013 compared with 2012, the growth is relatively large real estate, culture and entertainment industry and the mining industry. According to the investment value of the enterprise level data, the focus of the industry for the mining industry, manufacturing and power industry. Foreign investment from the perspective of ownership, state-owned enterprises in the power industry occupies the absolute position (96%, according to the amount of investment), telecommunications and computer industries 90.6%, transport industry reaches about 85%. Private enterprises accounted for the leading industry is the business and wholesale and retail, agriculture and leasing and business services.

谁是我们对外投资的主要东道国？ 2013年中国对外投资的东道国中除去几个主要的离岸中心外，集中于美国和澳大利亚。中国对外投资的来源地省份为东部沿海省份以及云南省。在对外直接投资中，国有企业是投资主体，按照项目数量，民营企业占绝对主导地位，但按照投资规模划分，央企占主导地位。

Who is the main host of our foreign investment?In 2013 Chinese foreign investment in host countries except for several major offshore centers, focus on American and australia. The source of China's foreign investment in the provinces of the eastern coastal provinces and Yunnan province. In foreign direct investment, the state-owned enterprises are the main body of investment, according to the number of projects, private enterprises in absolute dominance, but in accordance with the scale of investment, the central enterprises in the dominant position.

·中国企业对外投资的主要目标是什么？ 依据中国企业的对外投资案例，将对外企业的动机分为市场寻求型、自然资源寻求型、技术寻求型、效率寻求型。中国已经是全球第一大的大宗商品进口国，购买海外能源股票，矿产所有权的投资属于自然资源寻求型。技术寻求型是带有中国特点的对外投资动机，获得国外的先进技术，以便扩大中国国内市场。效率寻求型是为了追求降低生产成本，例如去越难、孟加拉、印度等投资。将中国企业对外投资的案例进行分类，结合企业公告和真实投资两个方面的分析，投资额比较大的是自然资源寻求型和市场寻求型。相比之下，效率寻求型占比不到1%，这表示中国本地企业通过对外投资来降低成本的案例比较少。

What is the main goal of Chinese enterprises' foreign investment?According to Chinese enterprises' foreign investment case, the motivation of foreign enterprises can be divided into market seeking, natural resource seeking, technology seeking, efficiency seeking. China is already the world's largest commodity importer, buying overseas energy stocks, and investment in mineral ownership is a natural resource seeking. Technology seeking is a foreign investment with the characteristics of China's foreign investment motivation, access to foreign advanced technology, so as to expand the domestic market. Efficiency seeking is to seek to reduce production costs, such as to the more difficult, Bangladesh, India and other investment. The case of Chinese enterprises foreign investment classification, combined with the analysis of two aspects of corporate announcements and real investment, the amount of investment is relatively large natural resource seeking and market seeking. In contrast, the efficiency of the search for less than 1%, which means that the Chinese local enterprises to reduce the cost of the case by foreign investment is less.

中国对外直接投资受阻的原因与决定因素

·什么是投资受阻及其特征？  “投资受阻”的定义是由于各种原因没能完成的对外直接投资，并不指那些投资后但业绩表现不佳的项目。研究分析的案例来自于《全球并购交易分析库》状态为withdraw的交易信息、媒体报道和公司信息披露。通过分析过去十年中国受阻的重大案例，可以看出海外受阻具有四个特征：（1）受阻企业以国有企业为主；（2）以采矿业、汽车业和通信业比较基准（战略性支柱产业）；（3）绝大多数是在发达国家，尤其是美国；（4）获得自然资源和获取品牌资产为主的投资动机易于受阻。

What is the main goal of Chinese enterprises' foreign investment?According to Chinese enterprises' foreign investment case, the motivation of foreign enterprises can be divided into market seeking, natural resource seeking, technology seeking, efficiency seeking. China is already the world's largest commodity importer, buying overseas energy stocks, and investment in mineral ownership is a natural resource seeking. Technology seeking is a foreign investment with the characteristics of China's foreign investment motivation, access to foreign advanced technology, so as to expand the domestic market. Efficiency seeking is to seek to reduce production costs, such as to the more difficult, Bangladesh, India and other investment. The case of Chinese enterprises foreign investment classification, combined with the analysis of two aspects of corporate announcements and real investment, the amount of investment is relatively large natural resource seeking and market seeking. In contrast, the efficiency of the search for less than 1%, which means that the Chinese local enterprises to reduce the cost of the case by foreign investment is less.

·投资受阻的原因和经验教训 从定性的角度分析受阻案例，投资受阻的主要原因有以下六种：（1）海外的政治压力；（2）国外竞争对手的狙击；（3）市场形势不利变化；（4）出价不具优势；（5）国内监管部门审核周期；（6）自身实力不足。从定量的角度进行数据分析，可以看出国有企业性质、投资动机与东道国并不是受阻的显著因素，而投资额、投资方式和投资时间和投资行业是企业海外受阻的显著决定性因素。其中，海外电信业，汽车业的投资比较容易受阻。从过去海外投资受阻案例中，我们可以得到三个经验教训。第一，盲目追求大规模的投资不容易取得成功。第二，投资行业的选择比较重要。第三，以小博大的投资策略难以获得成功。

Reasons and lessons learned from the investmentFrom the perspective of qualitative analysis case is blocked, investment blocked the main reason has the following six: (1) the overseas political pressure; (2) the sniper foreign competitors; (3) unfavorable market situation changes; (4) bid is not a competitive advantage; (5) of the domestic regulatory audit cycle; (6) the lack of their own strength. From the angle of quantitative data analysis, can be seen state-owned enterprise nature, motivation and host country of the investment is not blocked the significant factor, while the investment amount, ways of investment and investment of time and investment industry enterprises overseas blocked was the decisive factor. Among them, the overseas telecommunications industry, investment in the automotive industry is likely to be blocked. We can get three lessons from the past case of overseas investment. First, the blind pursuit of large-scale investment is not easy to achieve success. Second, the choice of the investment industry is more important. Third, the small and broad investment strategy is difficult to obtain success.

中国海外投资的前景

·为什么要进行海外直接投资？ “一带一路”与“走出去”战略背后，中国海外投资的主要需求来自于以下五个方面：首先，结构转型和产业升级的需要。国内制造业的转型升级则需要通过对外投资获得先进技术和管理经验；其次，提高海外投资收益率的需要。中国有2万亿美元的海外净资产，而目前中国对外资产的收益率普遍偏低；第三，多元化官方储备资产的需求；第四，推进人民币国际化的需要。随着人民币国际化进程加快，我们需要与之相配的跨国企业。第五，提升中国经济全球影响力。

Prospects for overseas investment in ChinaWhy to make overseas direct investment?"Along the way" and "going out" strategy, China's overseas investment mainly from the following five aspects: first, the structural transformation and industrial upgrading needs. The transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in China needs to acquire advanced technology and management experience through foreign investment. China has net foreign assets of $2 trillion, at present China's foreign assets yield is generally low; third, demand for diversified official reserve assets; fourth, promote RMB internationalization. With the internationalization of the RMB to accelerate the process, we need to match the multinational companies. Fifth, enhance China's economic global influence.

·海外直接投资如何避免风险？ 中国即将成为直接投资的净输出国，“一带一路”战略将成为中国对外投资的重要依托。然而，实施一带一路的战略，需要避免以下几个风险。首先，国际基础设施投资收益率低。国际基础设施投资沿线上是否能够通过中国惯有的地方政府的商业开发模式赚钱还值得商榷。其次，投资安全面临很大挑战。一带一路沿线的国家，例如中东、中亚等历来的投资声誉不佳。我们将面临这些国家政权更替之后国有化我们投资资产的风险。第三，“一路一带”战略中采用PPP方式遭遇私营部门意愿不足难题，如何调动私营部门积极性值得政府部门深入研究。第四，有可能妨碍而非加速国内经济结构转型。第五，加强沿线国家对中国的误解。如何采用更好的战略对话语言来降低沿线国家对中国的误解值得进一步思考。

How to avoid the risk of overseas direct investment?China is about to become a net exporter of direct investment, "along the way" strategy will become an important basis for China's foreign investment. However, the implementation of the strategy along the way, the need to avoid the following risks. First of all, the low rate of return on international investment in infrastructure. Whether or not it can be used to make money through the commercial development of the local government in china. Secondly, investment security is facing great challenges. Along the way along the country, such as the Middle East, Central Asia and other historically low investment reputation. We will face the risk of our investment assets after the replacement of these countries. Third, "along the way" in the strategy of using the PPP approach to the problem of the private sector will be difficult, how to mobilize the enthusiasm of the private sector is worthy of in-depth study of government departments. Fourth, it is possible to prevent and accelerate the transformation of the domestic economic structure. Fifth, to strengthen the country's misunderstanding of china. How to use a better strategy of dialogue language to reduce the country along the country's misunderstanding of China is worth further consideration.

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