Global Economic Prospects for 2010 and 2011Global Recovery ContinuesMichael Mussa, Senior FellowPeterson Institute for International EconomicsPaper presented at the seventeenth semiannual meetingon Global Economic Prospects, April 8, 2010.© Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. All rights reserved.The V-shaped recovery forecast a year ago at the depths of the great global recession of 2008–09 is now clearly under way, and my global real GDP growth forecast for 2010 is boosted to 4.5 percent (from 3.7 percent last April and 4.2 percent last September). For 2011, growth is projected to continue at about the same rate as this year (see table 1).The global recovery started early last year in China, India, and Indonesia and quickly spread to the other emerging-market and advanced economies of the Asia-Pacific region, with Japan lagging somewhat behind. For 2010, growth in emerging Asia is now forecast to surpass 8 percent, led by 10 percent real growth in China. For 2011 modest cooling of growth is projected for China and most of the Asia-Pacific region. For Japan, growth this year will meaningfully exceed the Consensus Forecast of less than 2 percent and will be sustained at 3 percent in 2011.Led by Brazil, economic recovery in most of Latin America is already showing considerable strength. Growth is forecast to exceed 4 percent this year and be sustained at this pace in 2011, despite continued difficulties in Venezuela and potential problems in Argentina. In the Middle East and Africa, recovery in world commodity prices and in exports to other emerging-market countries, coupled with continued relative calm in the social and political sphere, will support growth rates of 4 percent or better for these regions in 2010 and 2011. Countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) that were hard hit during the global recession have returned or are returning to positive growth, and growth rates in these regions of 2.7 and 5 percent for 2010 and 5 and 6 percent for 2011,respectively, are a reasonable prospect.As forecast last April, recovery in the United States began in the summer of 2009 and by year-end had erased the sharp decline in real GDP during the first half of the year (which amounted to half of the 3.6 percent total decline in real GDP during the recession). Growth during the first quarter of this year remained solid, probably at least 3 percent at an annual rate, with employment beginning to improve. The unemployment rate almost surely reached its cyclical peak at 10.1 percent last October—only a hair above my September forecast and definitely better than most forecasts of a continuing upward creep in unemployment.For 2010, I reaffirm my September forecast of 4 percent US real GDP growth (up from 3.6 percent in the April 2009 forecast) on a year-over-year basis. The fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth forecast, however, is cut marginally to 4.5 percent for this year and is anticipated to fall slightly below 4 percent next year. In contrast, the year-over-year growth forecast for 2011 is slightly above 4 percent. Consistent with these growth forecasts, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 9 percent by the end of this year and to 8 percent by the end of 2011.
本文来源：https://www.2haoxitong.net/k/doc/92c9e14669eae009581becc2.html
