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North is north

发布时间：2023-02-09 16:04:05 来源：文档文库

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Charlemagne
Northisnorth
Theeurozone’sexasperatednorthmustdomorethancomplainaboutthesouth’stroubles
Mar30th2013|Fromtheprintedition

LAPLANDisjustaboutasfarfromCyprusasonecangoinEurope.ButonaspringdaythesunreflectedonanendlessexpanseofsnowcanbeasbrightasaMediterraneanbeach.Russianpleasure-seekersandbusinessmenmayflocktobothcountries.Yetineconomictermstheyareworldsapart.ThisweekCyprusbecamethefiftheuro-zonecountrytonegotiateaeuro-zonebail-out;AAA-ratedFinland,initslaconicway,isperhapsthemosthardlineofcreditorstates.
ItisstrikinghowtheeconomiesofEUcountriesontheBalticSea—fromScandinaviaroundtoGermany,Polandandtheex-SovietBalticstates—boasttheunion’sfastest-growingeconomieswhilemanyofthoseontheMediterranean,fromGreecetoSpain,areshrinkingfastest.Thereasonsarecomplex.Fornow,northandsoutharelivinguptostereotypes:CyprusasthebirthplaceofthebeautifulbutfickleAphrodite,whoemergedfromthesurfatPaphos;FinlandasthehomeofVainamoinen,thewifelessoldbardwho,accordingtothe“Kalevala”,aFinnishepic,surfacedfromtheprimevalseatoplantthebarrenland.I

Bitternessbetweennorthandsouthisintensifying.InCyprusprotesterstooktothestreetsangrilytodefendtheirbankdeposits,decrytheirloomingimpoverishmentanddenounceEurope,especiallyGermany.AtthesametimeinFinlandtheprimeminister,JyrkiKatainen,summonedseveralEuropeanleadersforaretreatinaLappishresorttodiscusshowtobringgreater“fairness”toEuropeanaffairs.Thosewho“followtherules”(ie,northernersmustnotalwayshavetoputupmoneyforthosewhobreakthem(ie,southerners,hedeclared.
ThetermsoftheCypriotrescuepackagereflecttheexasperationofthecreditorstates.Theeraoftheall-encompassingrescueisending.Bail-outsmusthenceforthbe
accompaniedbythebailinginofprivateinvestors.Cypruswastolditsbankswouldnotbehelpedbyeuro-zonetaxpayers.SodepositorshavetotakethehitforanoversizedfinancialsectorthathadlivedoffquestionableRussianbusinessandhadheavilyexposeditselftoGreece.Thenortherners’priorityistoavoidthemistakesinGreece,wherecountriesoftheeurozonelentmoremoneythanAthenscouldeverrepay(includingtorecapitalisebanks.CreditorstateslaterhadtoforceprivatebondholderstotakelossesonGreekdebt,andarenowsurreptitiouslywritingoffofficialdebt.
TheFinns,theDutchandtheGermanswanttoshifttheeurozoneawayfromtheideaofgreaterpoolingofliabilities,advocatedbyEuro-federalists.Insteadtheywanttostrengthentheeuro’sbasicframeworkassetoutintheMaastrichttreaty:eachcountrymustberesponsibleforitseconomicpolicies,withincentrallyimposedrules.Finland’shardstancestems,inpart,fromnotionsofnationalself-reliance:asmallpeopleinavastlandofforestsandlakesfoughtaloneagainsttheSovietUnionintheWinterWarof1939-1940,thenwithGermanyintheContinuationWarof1941-44,andagainstGermanyintheLaplandWarof1944.InthecoldwarFinlandwasasemi-isolatedbufferstatebetweenEastandWest.ThecollapseoftheSovietUnionandtheburstingofahousingbubblepushedFinlandintoasevererecessionandbankingcrisis:between1990and1993GDPfellby10%,housepricesfellby40%andtheFinnishmarkkalost30%ofitsvalue.Finlanddidnotseekoutsideassistance,andeconomistsarguethatcrisis-erareformslaidthegroundforstrongrecovery,bestsymbolisedbytheriseofNokia,amobile-phonemaker.Havingjoinedtheeuro,Finland’sattitudetoClubMedcountriesisblunt:stopmoaningandgetonwithreforms.JustlookacrosstheseaattheBalticstates:theyhavegonethroughagonisingrecession,andinternaldevaluationwithinfixedcurrencies,butarenowgrowingfasterthananyoneelseintheEU.ManyintheClubMedcountriestalkofleavingtheeuro.ButClubBaltmembersarestilllininguptojoin.

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