I will report several processes of making the sales forecast.
Firstly we get the statistics from Ele’s website (the biggest O2O internet platform) in 2014.
Then we have forecasted the feature orders according to original statistics by using Forecast Model
Thirdly we took the median from every price and multiplied the median by each total orders, so that we got the turnover.
We have encountered some difficulties in the process of marketing forecast.
1. How did we get the statistics?
The statistics from Ele’s website is so large and disorder, what did we do to sum these data? Of course we have the solution to solve the problem, but it is a little bit difficult, we captured some information between the customers of offline and the platform, and we used the every businesses’ orders, the orders we added up by computer calculator systems. At the end, we got the millions of orders.
2. How can we make sure the sales forecast be approximation with the real statistics?
There is no doubt that the sales forecast is limited and uncertain, but we do make a promise to the approximation. It is precisely consider that the sales forecast can give enterprise to provide a basic data to plan and arrange their own development strategies.
3. How did we solve the decline in sales for the horizontal competitions?
In consideration of the horizontal competitions we do have taken some actions to avoid the inaccuracy. Such as we searched the market shares and growth rate of others o2o platforms, and we cut the growth rate we forecasted for the Ele by 8 percent, and we took the environment-friendly activities into account we also increased the revenue by 5 percent based on previous data.
4. How did we use data from a year to evaluate the revenue in next year.
We got an idea that we can take advantages of o2o platforms from aboard and we made a comparison study, then we entered data onto the calculate software, so that we can get the final data.
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