2011
10
10
010-******** chencong@citics.com S1010510120047
010-********
2008 08 23% 7% 4.4%
10 5 0 5 10 15 20
yufu@citics.com
21.2% 5.2% 7.4%
300
110104 110308 110506 110704 110829
REITS
1 2011 — ....... 2011-09-05 2 ............................................... 2011-08-05 3 2011 ............ 2011-03-07
0.06%
0.03%
EPS 10 6.1 8.08 7.69 9.16 2.97 12.06 0.59 0.57 0.63 0.12 0.06 0.75 11E 0.58 0.64 0.89 0.17 0.12 0.93 2011 12E 0.71 0.6 1.2 0.19 0.14 1.27 9 30 10 10.3 14.2 12.2 75.6 49.5 16.1
PE 11E 10.5 12.6 8.6 52.4 24.75 13.0 12E 8.6 13.5 6.4 47.1 21.2 9.5
...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 .................................................................................................................................. 1 .................................................................................. 1 .................................................................................. 3 —— —— —— —— —— ...................................................................................................... 4 .................................................................................................................................... 10 ............................................................................................ 10 .................................................................................... 10 ..................................................................... 11 .................................................................................................................... 13 ............................................................................................................................ 15 ........................................................................................................................ 15 ........................................................................................................ 16 REITs ................................................................................................................. 18 ................................................................................................................................ 25 —— —— ......................................................... 25 ..................................................................... 29 .................................................................................................................................................................... 23
.........................
........................................................................................................................... 32
1 2 3 4 2010 5 6 7 2010 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 GDP 31 2011 32 2011 33 34 35 36 37 2011 38 —— M2 / 07 07 GDP
.................................................................................................................... 2 .................................................................................................................................. 2 ....................................................................................................................................... 2 GDP 4 ................................................................................................. 3 .................................................................................................... 3 ROE....................................................................................... 5 ....................................................................................................................... 5 ........................................................................................................................ 5 ............................................................................................................................ 5 .................................................................................................................. 5 .......................................................................................................... 5 .......................................................................................................................... 6 ................................................................................................................ 6 .................................................................................................................................. 6 .............................................................................................................. 7 .............................................................................................................. 7 .................................................................................................................................. 7 .......................................................................................................................... 7 ................................................................................................................ 7 .............................................................................................................. 8 .............................................................................................................. 8 GDP ........................................................................................................ 8 ...................................................................................................... 8 ..........
................................................................................................ 9 ............................................................................................................................................... 11 ...................................................................................................................... 11 ........................................................................................................................ 11 ................................................................................................ 11 .............................................................................................................. 12 ....................................................................................................... 12 ................................................................................................... 12 ........................................................................................... 12 ............................................................................................ 13 ............................................................................................ 13 ............................................................................................ 13 ............................................................................................ 13 ....................................................................................... 14 ............................................................................................ 14
39 40 41 42 43 44 45 2010 46 47 48 49 50 51 REITs -2010 -2010 / / 52 2001 54 2006 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 1995 -2010 REITS REITS / / ROE A
........................................................................................................................ 14 ........................................................................................................................ 14 ........................................................................................................................ 14 ........................................................................................................................ 14 ................................................................................................... 15 ............................................................................................ 15 ................................................................................................... 16 .................................................................................................................. 17 ............................................................................................................................ 17 .............................................................................. 17 .................................................................................................................... 17 .........
............................................................... 18 ....................................................................................... 19 10 3 5 ........................................................................... 22 .................................................................... 22 ............................................................................................................................................ 18
53 1999-2008
REITS 1
.......................................................................................................................... 23 .......................................................................................................................... 23 .................................................................................................................... 24 ................................................................................................ 24 .................................................................................................... 26 ........................................................................................................ 28 ........................................................................................................................................... 28 .................................................................................................... 30 ( /03 ) ............................................................................................... 30 .................................................................................................. 30 /03 .................................................................................... 31
............................................................................................................................ 31 ................................................................................................ 31 ........................................................................................................................ 31 .................................................................................................... 32
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 REITs 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 A REITs REITS REITS REIT CBD 2010
........................................................................................................................ 3 ................................................................................................................................ 4 ................................................................................................ 9 .................................................................................................................... 9 .......................................................................................................................... 10 .................................................................................... 15 ...................................
................................................................................... 16 ........................................................................................................... 19 ................................................................................................................... 19 .............................................................................................................................. 20 .............................................................................................................................. 21 ......................................................................................................... 21 .................................... 22 ............................................................................................................ 24 .................................................................................................................... 24 ........................................................................................ 25 ....................................................................................................................................... 26 .................................................................... 26 B C .................................................. 27 .................................................................................................................... 27 ............................................................................................ 28 .................................................................................................................... 28 ................................................................................................................................... 29 ........................................................................................................................ 29 ......................................................................................................................................... 16
14 2010-2011
REITS
0.06%
0.03%
10%-50%
50%-70%
70%
2011
10
10
1
1
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 49.7% 2010 4 57.67% 2030 67.81%
49.7% 2015 20
1978
17.9% 1% 52.28% 2020
68%
2
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
GDP
GDP
3
100 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 15 20 35 42 85 88 109 200 124
Wind
GDP GDP 8000 2 GDP
8000 GDP 61 8000 2 38
2010 8000
2011
10
10
2
4 2010
38 17
GDP
8000 6000-8000 4000-6000 60 2000-4000
5
20 15 10 5 0 2000
Wind
52
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
120
2000
1
2010 2010 2010 550 2010 100 1000 527 662 2010
148.3 95.5 106.7 + + 169.5 33.2 25.5 9.9 14.9 2011 9 21 2010 CBD
1000
2011
10
10
3
2
NVR
32.7 14 2010 17.3 Centex 29 2010 2009
D.R.
30.1 26 54 29.4 60 18 Realogy CENTURE21 24
21
n.a.
15.6 339.9 152.4 JCPenney 175.1 REITSAIMCO 29.8 147.2 199.6 500 REITS REITS REITS 23 500 REITS REITS REITS-
57.4
2323
REITS-
550 44 870
REITS-
Shurgard Europe REITS127.4 2178 imeigu.com 4000 500
——
2010
82%
18%
2010
74%
26%
2011
10
10
4
6
25 20
4
ROE
7 2010
50,000 40,000 / 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
15 10 5 0 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
Wind
Wind
2-3 2008 20% 7% 2010
8
2,000 1,500 20% 1,000 500 -10% 0 -20% 0 10% 0% 500 -20% -40% 1,000 40% 30% 1,500 40% 20% 0%
23%
2010
9
2,000 80% 60%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Wind
Wind
10
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
11
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Wind
2010
CBRE
2010
2011
10
10
5
2008 2009 4
12
250 200 150 100 50 0 71%
2011 2009 2011
13 07
7
19%
CBD
10%
M-07
M-08
M-09
M-10
CRIC
M-11
S-07
S-08
S-09
S-10
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
J-11
CRIC
2007 280 2011 9 2011 2012
14
50.0 45.0 40.0 30.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 ( ) 40.0 35.0
CBD / / 400 7.6% 2010 2013 / / 21% 2011 301 / /
CBRE
2011
10
10
6
15
350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 / / 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0
16
300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 / / 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
CRIC
CRIC
17
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 ( ) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0
CRIC
18
250 200 150 100 50 0
19
58% 19%
M-07
M-08
M-09
M-10
CRIC
M-11
S-07
S-08
S-09
S-10
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
J-11
CRIC
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
07
12% 11%
2011
10
10
7
20
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
21
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
M-07
M-08
M-09
M-10
M-11
M-07
M-08
M-09
M-10
CRIC
CRIC
70%
22
80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
GDP
GDP
2010 20%
23
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% GDP 43.1 46.8 10.1
43%
38.1
27.8 34.1
2009
34.1% 2020
70% 50% 10 47%
55%
M-11
8
S-07
S-08
S-09
S-10
S-07
S-08
S-09
S-10
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
J-11
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
2011
10
10
J-11
24
80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00
CEIC
0.28 0.59 0.75 1.5-2 55% 7-9
3
2009 34.10% 78.60% 68.40% 73.80% 55.72% 81.10% 89.40% 80.40% 52.00% 100.00% CBRE 50% JLL
5-7
7,384 19,560 6,400 850 926 3000 1400 2200 1280 1000 2000
26,603 11,427 4,369 1,447 1,237 681 653 1,045 624 700
0.28 1.71 1.46 0.59 0.75 4.40 2.15 2.10 2.05 1.43
4
26,603 34.10% 1 55% 42,908 0.28 1.5-2 2 80% 51,490 7384 6.97 9.30 1.2-1.6 68,653
2011
10
10
9
——
2007 3 3 4 60% 1.1 1.5 9 2
50%
10%
5
07 9 0.85 07 08 9 9 0.85 08 10 9 4 0.7 10 10 1.1 2 5 3 5 9 0.85 10 11 1.1 3 5 3 6 10 1 0.85 11 0.85 1.1 3 1
1.1 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3
0.7-0.85 2 4 4
——
2011 44 2010 55%-60%
2011
10
10
10
25
200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% F-10 A-10 J-10 A-10 O-10 D-10 F-11 A-11 J-11 A-11
Wind
26
/
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101 1107
Wi
nd
——
10 8 103% / 2004 114% 2010 252% 2004 146% 2011
27
%
28
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005
Wind Wind
2006
2007
2008
10% 2008 2008 2008 2005 50% 90 10.9 3 4 34.9
10% 12.5
2011
10
10
11
29
——
30 GDP
40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 GDP
M2
M2
Wind
Wind
2008 69.6% 1%
2008 0.3% 2008
ODI
5
31
2011
5%
32
2011
38% 49% 46%
42%
11%
9%
2011
2011
2011 2009 1-2 1-2 40% 10% 17.9% ) 2011 13.7% 90%
2011
10
10
12
——
2010 2011 7%
33
350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 5.00% 0.00% 15.00% 10.00% 25.00% 20.00%
21.2%
34
300.0 250.0 15.00% 200.0 150.0 100.0 5.00% 50.0 0.0 0.00% 10.00% 20.00%
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
CBRE
/
/
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
CBRE / /
35
140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 5.00% 0.00% 15.00% 10.00% 25.00% 20.00%
36
160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
CBRE
/
/
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
CBRE / /
2011
10
10
13
37
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
2011
11Q2
38
65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
CBRE
39
38 36 34 32 30 28 26 / /
40
55 50 45 40 35 30 / /
CBRE
41
29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 / /
42
31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 / /
CBRE
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2
CBRE
2010
CBRE
CBRE
2011
10
10
14
2010 1 10 3~1 4 A
6 2010
A 1 200
/ 527 341 719 338 151 553 31 350 200 111 3,322 Wind 187 125 120 119 104 101 101 80 76 55 1,067 35% 37% 17% 35% 68% 18% 323% 23% 38% 49% 32%
43
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% A 10
Wind
A
32%
44
A 0.5 0.4
14%
0.3 0.2 0.1 H 10 0 2007
Wind
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
10
15
5% 6-8%
A 20-30%
0.46 10
2
45
2010
7
2007 57,446 23,573 18,138 15,735 CEIC 2008 64,751 28,650 22,991 13,111 2009 76,994 32,603 28,564 15,827 2010 105,565 40,610 32,350 32,606
8
10 1 20 30 20% 5 50% 6 50% 50%
2011
10
10
16
2-3 REIT
2010 18.9% 1.2 58.3% A
10.4 2010 8
46
16.00 12.00 8.00 4.00 0.00 2006
ROE
%
47
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
%
2007
2008
2009
2010
48
5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
/
/
49
/ 300 280 260 10 240 220 5 0
A-08 O-08 A-09 O-09 A-10 O-10 J-08 J-08 J-09 J-09 J-10 J-10 J-11
17
/
% 20 15
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2
200
/
A
11
U
2011
10
10
50
16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
1995
-2010
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
REITS REITS
REITs
51
REITs
REITS REITS 1960 REITS REITS REITS
3000
2011
10
10
18
9 REITs
52
500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
2001
-2010
REITS
250
200
150
100
50
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20
07 2008 2009 2010
www.reit.com
REITS 2
10 REITs
REITS
1
REITs, HCP 144.5 12 2010 31 573 12.6 REITs, 63000 (Ritz Carlton) 43 3.3
500
2010 7.49%
120 (Hyatt) (Westin) 2.10%
Host Hotels&Resort(HST)
76.5
(Marriott) (Hilton) 20 132 404
ProLogis(PLD)
122.5
2884 49000
5040
3.54%
RIOCAN REIT(REI-UN.TO)
69.2
297 (Staple), 2.9 (Sears), (Lowers)
384
2010 (Walmart),
8.4
9.32%
Plum Creak Timber Company Inc (PCL)
57.4
275 2010
11.9 500 2434 6.17 391
500 2.13 2010
1000
3.22%
Simon Properties(SPG) Public Storage(PSA)
330.3 199.4
39.6
15.38% 15.04%
38
7
2011
10
10
19
211 2010 Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Equity (EQR) Residential 146.1 16.5 REITs,
1254 6.72 929 27.8 449 2010 REITs, 146 84% 15.5 REITs, 31 573 12.6 REITs, 63000 (Ritz Carlton) 1.59 500 43 3.3 120 (Hyatt) (Westin) 2.10% 2010 7.49% 20 427 10.56% 8.10% 9.15%
2010 REITs,
6.48
155.2 2.84 139.6 93.2% 94.3% 2010 12 2010
16
Boston Properties(BXP)
HCP
151
Host Hotels&Resort(OST)
116
(Marriott) (Hilton) 20 132 404
ProLogis(PLD)
90
2884 49000
5040
3.54%
RIOCAN REIT(REI-UN.TO)
69.00
297 (Staple) 2.9 (Sears)
384 (Lowers)
2010 (Walmart)
8.4
9.32%
Plum Creak Timber Company Inc (PCL) BLOOMBERG 2011 6
66.00 20
275 2010
11.9
500 2.13
1000
3.22%
REITS 1960 Code of 1960,I.R.C.) REITS REITS REITS 75% 90% (Internal Revenue
11
REITS
REITS
captial gains) 35% 15%-35% EPRA, 2013 20%-39.6%
REITS
REITS
REITS
2011
10
10
20
12
REITS
REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT REITS REITS 90% REITS 4% excise tax 75% 75% C-Corp 95% 100 5 50%
www.reit.com
REITS
REITS 75% REITS
90% REITS 2-4%
13
REIT
2010 REITS 27.9 17.0 33.4 46.0 23.8 42.8 19.2 REITS Home Financing Commercial Financing FTSETM NAREIT 22.6 21.0 42.0 % % 3.65 3.88 3.41 2.72 4.03 2.58 5.39 14.61 15.5 8.2 REIT 122 30 28 18 13 13 12 23 13 10 390501822 73117378 101920502 68932149 31388449 18586721 49038833 43183720 37864864 5318857
/
2011
10
10
21
53
9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
1999-2008
6.34 6.63
REITS
6.51 6.79
10
7.49 6.27 6.51 7.19 7.20 8.25
%
SNL Financial
REITS 5 500
54 2006 -2010 REITS
1-Year 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 27.58 27.95 22.60 15.06 0.63 2.38 3.03 2.29
Health Care REIT Inc.(HCN)
REITS
1
3
3-Year
5
5-Year
Universal Health Realty Income Trust(UHT) Mid-America Apartment Communities… Pacific Office Properties Trust Inc.(PCE)
Entertainment Properties Trust(EPR) Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc.(UBA)
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc.(SKT)
Realty Income Corp.(O)
Getty Realty Corp.(GTY)
Equity One Inc.(EQY)
1
3
5
%
0.65
1.62
-6.31 REITS
www.reit.com
-2.86 500
REITS
REITS
CBD 5.6% REITS
14
2010-2011
% %
CBD
2010Q2 20.3 5.55 2010Q3 20.6 5.55 2010Q4 19.7 5.50 2011Q1 13.3 5.45 2011Q2 9.6 5.55
2011
10
10
22
55
380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200
/
: :
/
/
56
200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
/
: :
/
/
0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101 1107
0801 0807 0901 0907 1001 1007 1101 1107
2008 RE
ITs REITs REITS REITS REITS
REITS REITs REITs
REITS REITS REITS
2011
10
10
23
57
58
Wind
Wind
66 12
15
16 2011
100 80
41
57 10 22.5 50 22 40 60 6 100 12 160 100 60
50 10 15 30 30 24 60 n.a. 68 n.a. n.a. 90 71.5 SHOPPINGMALL SHOPPINGMALL SHOPPINGMALL SHOPPINGMALL SHOPPINGMALL
16
18 8 10 16
2011
10
10
24
14
17
2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 1.40% 2.30% 0.40% -2.50% -4.90% -2.10% 0.10% 0.90% 1.50% 4.10% 6.10% 6.60% 7.00% 21.20% CBRE 4.40% 3.70% 0.80% -8.70% -6.80% -4.60% -3.60% -1.10% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 3.40% 5.90% 5.20% 2.30% 0.50% -2.10% -3.70% -5.50% -1.30% -3.60% -0.60% 1.50% 3.80% 3.10% 2.30% 4.80% 7.40% 1.30% 2.70% 1.20% -5.70% -3.40% -0.30% -0.20% 2.00% 4.40% 2.00% 3.50% 3.10% 6.70% 4.40% 0.40% 2.30% 1.40% 0.50% -0.50% -1.00% 0.80% 1.20% 1.40% 4.30% 0.10% 8.80% 3.40% 3.40% 4.30% 4.70% 2.80% 0.10% -3.30% -0.60% 0.20% -0.30% -1.70% 0.60% 5.50% 4.10% 1.70% 1.80% -0.20% 0.20% 1.30% -5.40% -1.30% -2.90% -0.50% -1.10% 0.10% 0.50% 0.30% -0.20% 0.50% 0.60% 2.70% 1.90% 2.10% -0.30% -4.10% 0.60% 0.40% -0.10% 0.70% -0.10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.50% 0.80% 4.70% 5.40% 0.20% -2.50% -0.70% 4.00% 0.90% 0.50% 1.60% 1.40% 2.50% 1.30% 1.00% 3.00% 0.20% 3.30% -2.30% -0.50% -0.40% 0.60% 2.90% -1.20% -2.10% -1.80% 0.60% 1.10% 0.40% 3.10% 0.10% 2.40% -1.60% 6.30% -7.70% -2.40% 1.80% -0.50% 1.90% 2.40% 1.60% 1.00% 1.20% -1.00% 1.10% -0.20% -3.20% -1.90% 3.60% 0.00% 1.70% 0.40% 1.20% 1.30% 2.60% 0.40% -0.20% 3.40% 3.80% 2.90% -3.20% -3.00% -0.40% -0.60% -1.20% 0.30% -0.70% 6.70% 1.30% 0.60% 1.30%
——
2011
10
10
25
18
( 2007 2008 2009 2010 1250 1219 1800 2000 , )
Location
59
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Location
M-04
M-05
M-06
M-07
M-08
M-09
M-10
19
( ) 630,000 11 / / / / / / / 5 / / / / / / / / / / 411,400 380,703 345,000 308,000 299,600 288,000 265,628 253,320 252,000 252,000 229,200 187,200 120,100 / 18,000 18,700 20,037 23,000 22,000 21,400 19,200 22,136 21,110 21,000 21,000 19,100 20,800 20,017
CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CBD CRIC
Z15 Z14 Z6 Z10 Z12 Z4 Z8 Z13 Z2b Z5 Z3 Z9 Z2a Z1a
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2010 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
12 12 12 7 7 12 7 7 7 12 12 7 7 7
21 21 22 8 8 22 8 8 8 22 22 8 8 8
M-11
S-04
S-05
S-06
S-07
S-08
S-09
S-10
J-04
J-05
J-06
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
J-11
35.00 22.00 19.00 15.00 14.00 14.00 15.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 9.00 6.00
2011
10
10
26
20
B
A
B
B A
C
A A A B
A
B
B C B
A
B C
C
B
C
A
B: B
C B C
B
C
B
B
C
C C
B
C A
C:
C
C
A
B
A
A
A
21
2011
10
10
27
60
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 15 10 5 20
61
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010
2000 2010
22
2006 2007 2008 2009 1,325.00 1,427.00 1,545.00 1,687.00 3,034.00 3,527.00 4,097.00 4,723.00 57.30 67.26 84.33 106.65
GDP
23
Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing
2011
10
10
28
24
km 5 5 32 19 27 40 4
5 35 — 2008 3285 3591 3259 2897 768 561 430 1738 155 16684 80.18 61.50 49.96 26.71 24.30 13.80 27.38 34.98 7.70 326.51 85.74 73.50 64.90 31.67 29.09 19.60 30.64 45.00 22.00 402.14 —— —— ——
1959 1967 1967 1979 / 1979 1979 1982 1982 / 1991 —
25
( 35 45 92 49 80 06-11 40 32 28 33 1887 937 1705 1489 3297 2165 965 4006 1502 / 1% 0% 3% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
——
2011
10
10
29
62
30%
4060%
10-30%
10-20%
20-40%
REITS 40%
2010%
A A
63
(
/03
)
64
-
Wind
Wind
2010 2003 1.6 2010 40 2003
2003 57%
8
13
2010
2011
10
10
30
65
66
/03
Wind
Wind
(H 2010 7.1 50
67 68
)
2006 2006 1000% 2418%
6.2 1+N
2010
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006
Wind
50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006
Wind
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
10
10
31
69
A 81 145% 2011 68 149%
87% 131 200 NAV 9.46 2011/12/13 6.10 EPS 0.58/0.71/0.89 9.46 2011/12/13 PE 11/9/7 25% 2011
2011
10
10
32
/ ( YoY% ( YoY% EPS( % ROE% PE )( ) ) )
2009 6231 11.4 1366 31.4 0.45 39.1 8.8 13.56 2011 9 30
2010 8110 30.2 1782 30.5 0.59 44.5 10.5 10.34
2011E 9764 20.4 1768 -0.8 0.58 46.5 9.6 10.52
2012E 12064 23.6 2160 22.2 0.71 46.1 10.7 8.59
2013E 16729 38.7 2689 24.5 0.89 43.1 11.9 6.85
A
2011/12/13 PE9/6/5 NAV14.92 /
2011/12/13 7.69 2012
EPS 10.68
0.89/1.20/1.43
/ ( YoY% ( YoY% EPS( % ROE% PE PB )( ) ) )
2009 5684 63.4 560 1980.1 0.48 25.4 14.4 16.0 2.3 2011 9
2010 9138 60.8 741 32.4 0.63 24.1 16.1 12.1 1.9 30
2011E 12372 35.4 1040 40.3 0.89 25.5 19.1 8.6 1.6
2012E 16366 32.3 1404 35.0 1.20 24.2 21.4 6.4 1.4
2013E 22307 36.3 1666 18.6 1.43 22.7 21.1 5.4 1.1
2011
10
10
33
130 10 S3 500 OFFICE PARK 2 28
+
2011 5-10%
47.02%
78.38% PE13/13/11
/ ( YoY% ( YoY% EPS( % ROE% )( ) ) )
2011
2011/12/13 8.08
2009 840 -25.5 360 29.8 0.39 62.3 10.7 22.3
EPS
2011E 1954 31.7 598 12.9 0.64 55.5 14.0 13.4 12.63
0.64/0.60/0.76
2012E 1636 -16.3 557 -6.9 0.60 61.0 11.6 14.4 13.47
2011/12/13
2013E 2218 35.6 702 26.0 0.76 56.8 12.8 11.4 10.63
9.66
2010 1483 76.7 530 47.1 0.57 63.7 14.4 15.2 14.18 2011 9 30
PE
20.72
3A 8 3A
2011 55.45% 3A 2011 2012 CBD 26.4 21% / / -12.2% 3A 2011 3A
77.52% 31.9 3A
5
3A
48.81%
2011
10
10
34
14.3% 3B 3B 12.3
6.5
3A 54 3B
20 54%
3A 3B
57
PE 52.4/47.1/26
/ ( YoY% ( YoY% EPS( % ROE% PE )( ) ) ) 2009 871 -2.9 290 -18.3 0.29 61.5 6.6 31.6 2011 9 30
2011/12/13 9.07
2010 1036 18.9 121 -58.3 0.12 44.0 2.8 75.6
EPS
2011E 1706 64.7 174 44.3 0.17 38.3 3.9 52.4
0.17/0.19/0.35 9.70
2012E 1891 10.8 194 11.2 0.19 42.1 4.1 47.1
2011/12/13
2013E 2142 13.3 352 81.5 0.35 47.0 7.0 26.0
2011
10
10
35
Analyst Certification
i ii The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the a
nalyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
/ (2) / /
(
)
(1)
2011
1. 300 6 6 300 2. 6 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 20% 5% -10% 10% 10% -10% 10% 10% 20% 5%
48 100125 22
1568 200122 518048
8 26
1
Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.
-
This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. 1934 15a-6(a) (2) 15a-6 Z20374000
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