TED演讲如何理解正在崛起的中国 The world is changing with really ____1_____ speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, you'll see that in 2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, it's projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And we should bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up before the Western ____2_____crisis. 00:51 A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest ____3_____ by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The ____4_____ projection is 2020. That's just a decade away. China is going to change the world in two ____5_____respects. First of all, it's a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year. 01:36 And within a ____6_____, it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed country. Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the ____7_____ country in the world -- which I think is what China
will become -- will be not from the West and from very, very different ____8_____roots. 02:10 Now, I know it's a ____9_____in the West that as countries modernize, they also westernize. This is an illusion. It's an assumption that modernity is a product simply of competition, markets and technology. It is not. It is also shaped equally by history and culture. China is not like the West, and it will not become like the West. It will remain in very fundamental respects very different. Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of China? How do we try to understand what China is? And the problem we have in the West at the moment,____10_____, is that the ____11_____is that we understand it really in Western terms, using Western ideas. We can't. Now I want to offer you three ____12_____for trying to understand what China is like, just as a beginning. 03:08 The first is this: that China is not really a nation-state. Okay, it's called itself a nation-state for the last hundred years, but everyone who knows anything about China knows it's a lot older than this. This was what China looked like with the ____13_____ of the Qin Dynasty in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period -- the birth of modern China. And you can see it against the ____14_____of modern China. Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty, still 2,000 years ago. And you can see already it ____15_____ most of what we now know as Eastern China, which
